RESEARCH
Works in Progress
The Social Value of Animal Welfare: A Revealed Policy Preference Approach
[Job Market Paper]
+/- Abstract
This paper develops and applies a revealed-preference framework to measure voter willingness to pay (WTP) for a public good that raises the price of a widely consumed private good. I study California's Proposition 12 (2018), which mandated cage-free housing for hens by 2022 and was approved by 63% of voters despite raising egg prices. I assemble a novel dataset combining precinct-level referendum outcomes with NielsenIQ retail scanner and consumer panel data on egg prices and market shares at the UPC--ZIP--month level. I first estimate consumers’ marginal WTP for the cage-free attribute using a random-coefficients logit model of egg demand, instrumenting for price with Hausman-style and cost-shifter instruments. I then estimate the distribution of total (Lindahl) WTP across precincts by treating the referendum as a large-scale dichotomous-choice experiment of median voter in each precinct. The residual between total WTP and private (use) WTP for the quasi-public good (Prop 12) yields its non-use value: willingness to pay for animal welfare improvements independent of own consumption. I find that more than half of the support for Prop 12 cannot be explained by private benefits alone, consistent with widespread moral or public-good motivations. Methodologically, this paper demonstrates how market data and voting data can be combined to separate use and non-use components of public-good demand, providing a general approach for policy valuation when policies shift market prices.
(with Zach Freitas-Groff and Carl Meyer)
[Revision Requested: European Economic Review]
+/- Abstract
Over the past two decades, U.S. meat consumption has remained high while purchases of plant-based alternatives have grown, raising questions about whether consumer behavior is shifting. Answering this question is difficult: surveys overstate meat avoidance due to social-desirability bias, and aggregated data obscure heterogeneity across households and regions. To address these challenges, we use a nationally representative household panel (2004–2020) linked with ingredient-level product data and develop a machine learning–based classification of grocery purchases. We show that, despite modest growth in aggregate meat purchases, the share of households buying no meat rises by about 10\% and the share buying no animal products nearly doubles--revealing growing polarization in dietary behavior. These patterns predate the introduction of modern plant-based meat alternatives, whose limited market share cannot explain the observed changes. Demographic analyses indicate that growing meat- and animal product-avoidance is driven largely by population turnover rather than behavioral change within existing consumers. Our findings reconcile persistently high aggregate meat consumption with the increasing visibility of meat avoidance.
Media coverage: Vox
Wildfire Zoning and Heterogeneous Responses to Wildfire Events: Evidence from the California Housing Market
(with Matthew Wibbenmeyer)
+/- Abstract
Do wildfires alter local demographics? Employing event study and difference-in-differences strategies, we study the effect of 192 large wildfire events (2016-2018) on nearby house transaction prices and quantities to identify heterogeneity in real estate market responses across Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZ) mapped by the state in 2011. We find that post-wildfire sellers in "very high" FHSZ have significantly lower incomes than before, whereas post-wildfire sellers outside of any FHSZ (non-FHSZ) have the same income levels as before. Meanwhile, post-wildfire buyers have lower incomes than before regardless of zone. Controlling for house characteristics, home prices in "very high" FHSZ are unaffected by a nearby fire, however the types of homes sold in these areas after a fire are of a significantly lower quality relative to before. In contrast, home prices in non-FHSZ areas decrease after a nearby fire by more than 14 percent and remain low for at least a year, but the quality of homes sold in these areas remains the same as before. We rationalize these findings by calibrating a model of seller/buyer behavior that incorporates decreasing relative risk aversion and treats wildfires as information shocks.
No Ethical Consumption Under General Equilibrium? Evidence from the US Meat Market
(with Christoph Semken)
+/- Abstract
Many consumers engage in ethical consumption, altering their consumption choices so as to mitigate their personal contributions to negative externalities such as climate change, animal welfare, or pollution. But do individual consumption choice have any impact on overall externalities in a competitive market? In this paper, we estimate the effect of consumption changes on externalities in general equilibrium for the U.S. meat market. We derive sufficient statistics based on the demand and supply cross-price elasticities of all goods with externalities. We estimate the cross-price elasticities using home scanner data and farmer surveys, respectively, and derive the effect of ethical meat consumption on animal welfare. We further show that the effect on other externalities can be estimated using bounding assumptions on substitution patterns. Using such assumptions, we additionally estimate the effect of ethical meat consumption on overall greenhouse gas emissions
Published Work
A Scoping Review of (Dis-)Incentives for Welfare-improving Farming Practices
(with Sharon Pailler, Jon McFadden, Sharon Raszap, Zach Raff, Kevin Kuruc)
Forthcoming: Food Policy, Nov 2025
+/- Abstract
Public interest in improving farm animal welfare has increased in recent years, but research on implementation lags behind. This review examines the incentives and barriers to adoption from the perspective of key stakeholders: farmers and other animal product producers. We perform a machine-learning aided scoping review of the academic literature studying how different rearing practices influence outcomes for producers, providing direct evidence on the (dis-)incentives of adopting the practices studied. This allows us to (1) identify existing consensus and (2) highlight research gaps on this question. Operating costs emerge as a near-universal disincentive for welfare-improving practices. Conversely, improved indoor environment shows potential benefits for animal health and productivity, suggesting the possibility of interventions that have only negligible impacts on overall profits. These takeaways are drawn from a relatively sparse literature, underscoring important research gaps. Addressing these gaps can inform evidence-based policies that align practice with public expectations for farm animal welfare while being cognizant of producer constraints and incentives.
(with Alex Hoagland)
Contemporary Economic Policy, 2018
Other Work
(with Ethan Ligon)
GiveWell "Change Our Mind Contest" Honorable Mention, 2022
