RESEARCH
Works in Progress
The Social Value of Animal Welfare: A Revealed Policy Preference Approach
+/- Abstract
Public policies often aim to provide goods that are not directly priced in markets. And yet the values of these non-market goods are notoriously difficult to pin down, causing researchers to resort to clever stated-preference strategies. In this paper, I develop a revealed-preference alternative for estimating the value of public policy when a cost is knowingly borne by a majority of referendum voters. I demonstrate this method in the case of California's Prop 12, a referendum which voters passed in 2018 to ban the in-state sale of eggs, pork, and veal that are sourced from animals in excessively confined housing by 2024. Combining precinct-level variation in Prop 12 approval with zip code-level cage-free egg price markup (above conventional eggs), I show that voters in precincts that face higher markups are statistically more likely to disapprove of Prop 12 after controlling for relevant covariates. Critically, this demonstrates that voters consider prices when deciding whether to approve of Prop 12. Building upon this insight, I estimate a lower bound of California voters' demand for Prop 12 (i.e. total WTP by percentile) by treating the Prop 12 referendum as a single dichotomous choice experiment where each participant (the marginal voter of each precinct) is asked whether she would be willing to forgo consumer surplus in exchange for enacting Prop 12.
(with Zach Freitas-Groff and Carl Meyer) [submitted]
+/- Abstract
The past decades have seen a number of new policies and food technology businesses concerned with alleviating animal welfare or environmental impacts of animal agriculture. We study whether there is evidence that consumer behavior is changing in parallel by examining real grocery purchases matched with machine-scanned label data. We find that meat consumption has been at its highest in recent years, consistent with prior observations, but we offer the first observational evidence that a growing share of the population is purchasing less or no meat and other animal products. While some of this trend can be explained by changes in the volume of grocery purchases, we suggest that media and generational turnover are further driving this trend. We finally discuss the plausible effects of meat alternatives, finding that while they affect meat consumption at a low volume now, they could play a major role in the future.
Media coverage: Vox
A Scoping Review of (Dis-)Incentives for Welfare-improving Farming Practices
(with Sharon Pailler, Jon McFadden, Sharon Raszap, Zach Raff, Kevin Kuruc) [submitted]
+/- Abstract
To identify factors that are associated with farmer decisions to employ humane farm practices, we perform a scoping review of academic literature. Guided by topical analysis performed by a latent derelict allocation (LDA) machine learning model, we identify factors mentioned in the literature as being relevant to both animal welfare and producer decisions. Informed by this model, we categorize these factors as motivators for or barriers to the use of more humane farm practices.
Wildfire Zoning and Heterogeneous Responses to Wildfire Events: Evidence from the California Housing Market
(with Matthew Wibbenmeyer)
+/- Abstract
Do wildfires alter local demographics? Employing event study and difference-in-differences strategies, we study the effect of 192 large wildfire events (2016-2018) on nearby house transaction prices and quantities to identify heterogeneity in real estate market responses across Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZ) mapped by the state in 2011. We find that post-wildfire sellers in "very high" FHSZ have significantly lower incomes than before, whereas post-wildfire sellers outside of any FHSZ (non-FHSZ) have the same income levels as before. Meanwhile, post-wildfire buyers have lower incomes than before regardless of zone. Controlling for house characteristics, home prices in "very high" FHSZ are unaffected by a nearby fire, however the types of homes sold in these areas after a fire are of a significantly lower quality relative to before. In contrast, home prices in non-FHSZ areas decrease after a nearby fire by more than 14 percent and remain low for at least a year, but the quality of homes sold in these areas remains the same as before. We rationalize these findings by calibrating a model of seller/buyer behavior that incorporates decreasing relative risk aversion and treats wildfires as information shocks.
No Ethical Consumption Under General Equilibrium? Evidence from the US Meat Market
(with Christoph Semken)
+/- Abstract
Many consumers engage in ethical consumption, altering their consumption choices so as to mitigate their personal contributions to negative externalities such as climate change, animal welfare, or pollution. But do individual consumption choice have any impact on overall externalities in a competitive market? In this paper, we estimate the effect of consumption changes on externalities in general equilibrium for the U.S. meat market. We derive sufficient statistics based on the demand and supply cross-price elasticities of all goods with externalities. We estimate the cross-price elasticities using home scanner data and farmer surveys, respectively, and derive the effect of ethical meat consumption on animal welfare. We further show that the effect on other externalities can be estimated using bounding assumptions on substitution patterns. Using such assumptions, we additionally estimate the effect of ethical meat consumption on overall greenhouse gas emissions
Published Work
(with Alex Hoagland)
Contemporary Economic Policy, 2018
Other Work
(with Ethan Ligon)
GiveWell "Change Our Mind Contest" Honorable Mention, 2022
